Zhang Wenhong: The new crown epidemic is transitioning from a pandemic to a seasonal endemic

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At the Guangdong Public Health Forum held on December 18

Zhang Wenhong, director of the National Center for Infectious Disease Medicine

made the latest judgment on the current epidemic prevention and control situation

He said that all mutants of the new coronavirus in the last year

are concentrated in the Omicron family

It means that the virus mutation has become stable today

It is becoming more difficult to produce more transmissible viruses

The epidemic is transitioning from a pandemic to a

Seasonal, localized epidemics

Zhang Wenhong said that after the new coronavirus continues to mutate, its virulence is significantly reduced, and vaccination reaches a certain level, China will gradually come out of the epidemic by optimizing and improving measures to prevent and control the epidemic. “The peak of infection will be high next, but the epidemic is tending to be manageable, and is currently in the transition period from pandemic to endemic and seasonal epidemic.” Widespread vaccination and mixed immunity formed by infection in a larger population has proven to be extremely effective in preventing and controlling Omicron, he said. “The probability of a sudden, large mutation during such a transition period that would return the epidemic to its initial stage is very low. While the possibility of other mutant strains jumping out of the Omicron family cannot be ruled out, human immunity to the new mutation will continue to function, making the new crown a complete seasonal infection.”

However, Wenhong Zhang cautioned that although the epidemic as a whole shows a weakening of pathogenicity, we must prepare for the danger of disease in extreme cases and the lack of medical resources. In addition, it is important to fully estimate the current overall vaccine coverage, especially the lack of coverage among vulnerable populations, and even lower coverage of the three-shot vaccination rate, “in which case we have to be prepared for the lack of medical resources in the first wave of the pandemic peak if the epidemic enters a rapid rise.”

For the current epidemic prevention and control, Zhang Wenhong made four recommendations.

First, various non-pharmaceutical public health (NPI) measures to depress the curve of the first wave of the epidemic while safeguarding the basic activities of the society in order to successfully deal with the subsequent waves of the epidemic, and the whole society will gradually reopen.

Second, the stockpile of drugs, vaccines, and other medical resources. The stockpile of drugs should be completed as soon as possible based on the base number of people with high-risk factors mapped by provinces and municipalities. By then, if antiviral drugs can be covered for 100% of patients with high-risk factors, it will effectively reduce the rate of serious illness in people with high-risk factors. Increase the full vaccination rate for people over 60 years old to 90% as soon as possible.

Third, establish and improve the three-level hierarchical medical system. The community street administrative system is linked with community health centers to manage home rehabilitation treatment for asymptomatic and mildly ill patients. Fever outpatient screening requires high-risk groups to designated hospitals for immediate referral and treatment. Information technology and telemedicine system should also be introduced.

Fourth, focus on the medical needs of non-newly crowned patients. Focus on the adequacy of the number of ICU beds for seriously/critically ill patients, while safeguarding the treatment of patients requiring regular medical visits such as dialysis, oncology chemotherapy and pregnant women.