When will the outbreak be completely over? Will mass nucleic acid testing be restarted?

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After the liberalization of the vaccination policy, the outbreak of the new coronavirus peaked and quickly passed the peak before the Chinese New Year. But after the biggest migration event, the Spring Festival, many people are worried that the epidemic will peak again. After the peak of infection, many people wonder when the epidemic will be completely over.

And with the opening of the policy, the nucleic acid testing is now basically done by the residents themselves at the hospital, and many people actually have mild symptoms or get better after taking the medication, without having their nucleic acid tested. Wu Zunyou, chief epidemiologist at the Chinese CDC, said on his social media account on January 21 that since this wave of the epidemic has infected about 80 percent of the country’s population, the likelihood of a larger-scale nationwide rebound or a second wave of the epidemic in the short term, such as the next two to three months, is slim.

When will the epidemic end completely?

Many experts currently have a prediction for the new crown epidemic, which is expected to end in June of this year. There are several reasons for this.

1) The virus is restricted by rising temperatures

Because the virus is more likely to survive in a cold, dry environment, and after June, the temperature gradually rises, the activity of the virus will gradually decline, and as the peak of the epidemic passes, after most people have been infected once, there will be herd immunity, and the virus will not spread as unscrupulously as before.

But we still need to pay attention to good protection, or it may still lead to an extended outbreak. And although many people’s symptoms have improved so far, the peak of serious illnesses has not yet passed and there are still many serious illnesses being treated in hospitals. Therefore, it is even more important for the elderly and other people with underlying diseases who are at high risk of severe illness to be well protected against the 2nd wave of epidemic infection.

2) Development of vaccines and specific drugs

With the extension of time, more potent drugs and vaccines will be developed and the vaccine will be popularized to more people, which will give us more weapons against the virus.

At the same time, after our body is infected with the new coronavirus, the immune cells already have a deep memory of the new coronavirus, and once the virus comes back, the immune cells will quickly start the combat mode to help us annihilate the virus in the nascent state.

Will large-scale nucleic acid testing be restarted?

Recently, Jiangxi Fuzhou Dongxiang District, released a notice to carry out free nucleic acid testing in the whole district on January 25 and 26 for two days. For a while, it sparked a lot of discussion. Some people think that there is no need to carry out large-scale testing after the epidemic has been liberalized, which is “against” the national policy, while others think that it is good to be able to grasp the situation of the epidemic infection by sampling during the Spring Festival.

In fact, the nucleic acid test in Jiangxi does not require universal participation, but voluntary participation, which is only used to count the positive rate of nucleic acid in the local community. In fact, this free mass nucleic acid testing is also a good thing to help clarify the status of the epidemic and take targeted measures.

Conclusion

The answer to the question of whether the epidemic will be completely over by June this year and whether there will be a second or even a third round of mass outbreaks is still unclear and can only be verified with time. As for restarting large-scale nucleic acid testing, I think it should be unlikely because it is not very meaningful in the current epidemic situation.

Winter will end and spring will come. May the mountains and rivers be safe and the world be at peace. As long as we are well protected and vaccinated. I believe that sooner or later we will overcome the epidemic!