New crown virus “can not pass” “disappeared”? Experts: the virus did not disappear out of thin air, and is still prevalent!
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After a Spring Festival holiday people found that there are very few people around who are in positive infection, most people are Yang Kang, and even many people have started not to wear masks. Before many people worry about the peak of infection and did not appear. So some people wonder, the new coronavirus will be like “SARS”, this “disappeared”? Is the epidemic over because there is no peak in the Spring Festival? Is the global emergency over?
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No epidemic peak in the Spring Festival, the epidemic has passed?
Experts: the national epidemic entered the low epidemic level
January 30, the State Council joint prevention and control mechanism held a press conference, the National Health and Health Commission spokesman, deputy director of the Department of Publicity Mi Feng introduced the overall national epidemic has entered a low epidemic level, the epidemic around the country to maintain a steady decline in the trend. ①
On January 30, Liu Jue, a member of the National Expert Group on Novel Coronavirus of the National Health and Wellness Commission and a researcher in the Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics at the School of Public Health of Peking University, said in an interview with the People’s Daily Health Client, “The main reason is that China’s vaccination coverage has reached a high level (active immunization), coupled with the fact that a large number of people have been infected before the Spring Festival and the provinces have smoothly passed the peak of infection (natural immunity), the rapid establishment of a mixed immune barrier in the population, the peak of the Spring Festival epidemic did not occur.” ②
New coronavirus this “disappeared”?
Experts: the virus is still there and is still prevalent
Hu Yang, deputy director of the Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine at Shanghai Pulmonary Hospital, said in an interview with the People’s Daily Health Client on January 30, “In fact, the virus has not disappeared out of thin air, many people have been infected and will not be reinfected in the short term, so that there is no news of the virus, it feels like the virus has completely disappeared.”
“Previously, we all do not have immunity against the new crown, so the virus is easy to infect the human body, one to ten to one, soon formed a large-scale epidemic, now all infected, the virus transmission chain is cut off, even if there are cases of infection, is also disseminated, a person is infected, around not to infected, with this one case healed, the virus is also removed. ” Dr. Hu Yang explained. ②
The fact is that the virus is still there and is still circulating, but at a low level. The official website of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention released the national epidemic of novel coronavirus infection on January 25, with the number of positive cases peaking on December 22, 2022 (6.94 million) and then gradually decreasing to a low of 15,000 on January 23, 2023 (the second day of the Lunar New Year); the positive test rate peaked on December 25, 2022 (29.2%) and then gradually declined, decreasing to 5.5%. ③
Trends in the number of positive new coronas and positivity rates in the national reporting population CDC Figure
The number of hospitalized patients with new crowns is also decreasing significantly nationwide. According to the above notification, the number peaked at 1.625 million on January 5, 2023 and decreased to 248,000 on January 23. The peak number of seriously ill patients also dropped from 128,000 on January 5 to 36,000 on January 23, a 72.0% decrease from the peak. This also indicates that the peak of infection has passed, but the epidemic still exists.
The epidemic has entered a low epidemic level, the
Experts: These people are currently most affected by the epidemic!
Li Dong, chief physician of the Department of Respiratory and Infectious Diseases at Beijing Youan Hospital, said in an interview with CNN on January 29 that the level of immune protection obtained after infection will decrease and the risk of infection will increase in the next three to six months, and if the virus continues to mutate to a mutant strain with stronger immune escape capability, the risk of reinfection will increase for everyone and the probability of a new peak will increase. ④
“But it won’t be as bad as the one at the end of last year.” Dong Li has pointed out that people with normal immune function will gain immunity after infection, and even if they become infected again, the risk of serious illness will be lower and symptoms will be reduced.
Lu Mengji, a virologist and professor at the Institute of Virus Research at the University of Essen Medical School in Germany, said in an interview with CNN on Jan. 29 that the number of infections will continue to be at a high level with reference to the situation in Germany, while the number of morbidity visits will be lower than before, but the number is fluctuating.
He believes that the most affected by the outbreak is currently the not-yet-infected population, estimated at 15% to 20%. This is a reduced level of impact compared to the previous situation where the overall population was susceptible. However, given the population base in China, the size of the population involved is still huge. ④
Are there any new mutant strains imported and spread during Spring Festival?
Experts: No new mutant strains have been found yet
With the frequent movement of people during the Chinese New Year, there is a lot of concern about whether new mutant strains have been introduced into China. In the State Council joint prevention and control mechanism press conference held on January 30, Chen Cao, a researcher at the Institute of Viral Diseases of the Chinese CDC, introduced that according to the surveillance data, the current round of the epidemic is still the main prevalent strain of BA.5.2 and BF.7, and no other dominant strains of virus have been monitored.
Chen Cao introduced, since the occurrence of the new crown epidemic, China has been carrying out the monitoring of mutant strains of the new crown virus, but also for the early flow of the epidemic to trace the source of important clues and support, but also accumulated a lot of experience and data. During the Spring Festival holiday, 1421 whole genome sequences of new coronaviruses were received from all provinces in China, and after analysis, 11 evolutionary branches were found, still dominated by BA.5.2 and BF.7, and no new variant strains were found to be imported. ①
Is it time to declare the end of the global emergency of New Crown?
Still constitutes a “public health emergency of international concern”
On January 27, Geneva time, the World Health Organization held the 14th meeting of the International Health Regulations (2005) Emergencies Committee on the New Crown (COVID-19) pandemic to discuss and assess whether the current New Crown pandemic still constitutes a public health emergency of international concern.
The World Health Organization (WHO) issued a statement on January 30 saying that while the new pandemic may be approaching a turning point, it still constitutes a “public health emergency of international concern.
World Health Organization
WHO emergency committee members said there is uncertainty about the emergence of new variants of the virus because the death toll from neostriatal remains high compared to other respiratory infections and vaccine coverage remains inadequate in low- and middle-income countries and among high-risk groups globally. ⑤
This article was synthesized from.
①2023-01-30 State Council Joint Prevention and Control Mechanism Press Conference
②2023-01-30 People’s Daily Health Client “New coronavirus “disappeared”? Experts: only at a low level of epidemic” (Zhao Mengmeng)
③2023-01-25 China CDC official website “National epidemic situation of new coronavirus infection
④2023-01-30 China’s new network “New coronavirus transmission is not moving? Not yet infected people are most affected by the epidemic
⑤2023-01-30 Xinhua News Agency “WHO: New coronavirus outbreak is still a public health emergency of international concern”.
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