Pfizer's revenue last year exceeded 100 billion U.S. dollars, the new crown products contribute more than half, this year is expected to decline sharply

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On January 31, Pfizer released its 2022 financial results. During the reporting period, relying on the huge gains brought by the new crown products, Pfizer’s revenue reached a record high of US$100.3 billion, up 23.43% year-on-year; net profit attributable to common shareholders was US$31.372 billion, up 42.74% year-on-year. Among them, Pfizer’s two new crown products contributed more than half of the revenue. Pfizer expects that the two new crown products will enter the trough in sales this year, and the decline is expected to be more than 50%.

New crown products contribute more than half of the revenue, this year or go into the trough

During the epidemic, the new crown products have been Pfizer’s most popular star products. 2022, Pfizer’s new crown vaccine Comirnaty achieved revenue of $37.806 billion (up slightly from $36.8 billion in 2021), and the new crown oral drug Paxlovid revenue of $18.933 billion, totaling $56.739 billion, accounting for 56.53% of the total revenue ratio. In the fourth quarter of 2022, the new crown vaccine Comirnaty revenue of $ 11.329 billion, down about 9% year-on-year, and the new crown oral drug Paxlovid revenue of $ 1.834 billion, down about 75.6% sequentially.

Pfizer predicts that the two new crown products may see a significant decline in revenue in 2023. Pfizer expects revenue of $67 billion – $71 billion in 2023. Among them, the new crown product revenue is expected to be about $21.5 billion, Comirnaty, Paxlovid revenue is expected to be $13.5 billion, $8 billion, respectively, compared to the actual revenue in 2022 is expected to decline by 64%, 58%, respectively. For the expected downward revision of the performance, Pfizer said that the government’s adequate procurement of new crown products, resulting in increased inventory, is expected to be the low point of sales of new crown products in 2023, these inventories may be absorbed in the second half of 2023, and will gradually stabilize and rebound starting in 2024.

In the 2022 national health insurance catalog negotiation, New Crown oral drug Paxlovid quoted too high “out”, still can enjoy the health insurance temporary payment policy before March 31. April, Paxlovid will be shifted to the self-pay market, including private hospital channels.

However, Paxlovid is facing competition from a number of new oral drugs in China. In addition to the previously conditionally approved Azivudine, Pfizer’s biggest competitor in the Chinese market may be the same 3CL protease inhibitor as Paxlovid, Centrum Pharmaceuticals’ new oral coronary drug Centrum, which is a combination package of centrumetvir tablets/ritonavir tablets, and is the first domestic 3CL target anti-new coronary oral drug, which has just been conditionally approved for marketing by the State Drug Administration on January 28, with excellent clinical trial With excellent data, the first offer of the drug is 750 yuan/box, which has a large competitive price advantage compared with Pfizer’s pricing of 1890 yuan in the Chinese market.

In addition, there are more than 10 domestic companies laying out 3CL targets for the new crown oral drug. Globally, 3CL protease inhibitors are the most researched and most promising small molecule drugs in the industry for the development of new crown oral drugs. Up to now, there are three approved 3CL-targeted anti-neostriatal oral drugs, in addition to the two mentioned above, there is also Xocova by Shionogi, which was granted emergency use authorization in Japan in November last year, and the drug has been submitted for marketing in China. According to the data of Smart Bud Global New Drug Intelligence Database, there are already more than 40 new coronary pneumonia drugs developed based on 3CL protease worldwide. In the next few years, as these new crown oral drugs are approved to market, Pfizer Paxlovid will face fierce competition.

Some drug patents will expire, a number of innovative drugs on the market soon

This year, Pfizer is also facing a number of best-selling drugs patent expiration, generic drugs will soon compete with the original drugs in the market. Even if the patents have not expired, they will also encounter challenges from generic companies. The star anticoagulant Apixaban (Eliquis), jointly developed by Pfizer and Bristol-Myers Squibb, is already under siege from generics.

Apixaban is one of the best-selling drugs in the world. In 2021, global sales of the original Apixaban will reach a new record high, according to data from Minebea. Pfizer’s 2022 financial data disclosed that apixaban sales increased 14% year-on-year to $6.5 billion in the reporting period.

The Xinjing News found that a number of companies around the world had previously filed invalidation challenges against apixaban prescription patents, including China’s Dongyang Pharmaceutical, Huahai Pharmaceutical and Nanjing Runnor. In the Chinese market, where Bristol-Myers Squibb is responsible for sales, Chinese pharmaceutical companies have successfully challenged their patents, opening the prologue of generic drugs to market in advance. Up to now, over 20 local companies have had their generic Apixaban approved, passed or deemed to have passed the consistency evaluation, and the domestic price of Apixaban has been significantly reduced.

Pfizer expects to lose $17 billion in annual sales between 2025 and 2030 due to patent expiration factors for best-selling drugs.

To cope with the patent expiration, generic drugs “siege” will bring performance decline, Pfizer is also actively developing more innovative drugs with differentiation. In March last year, Pfizer acquired the innovative drug Etrasimod for $6.7 billion, with positive phase III clinical results in the treatment of moderately severe active ulcerative colitis. According to Pfizer’s December 2022 announcement, the FDA has accepted the drug’s application for marketing authorization for a new drug and is expected to make an approval in the second half of this year. The European Medicines Agency has also accepted the drug’s marketing authorization application and is expected to make an approval in the first half of 2024.

The Clove Insight database shows that in the field of inflammation and immunity, Pfizer’s another innovative drug, Ritlecitinib, is the first and currently the only dual-selective inhibitor of TEC family (intracytoplasmic tyrosine protein kinase molecules) and JAK3 (non-receptor tyrosine protein kinase 3) for the indication of baldness, and has also submitted marketing applications in both the US and China. For hematology indications, CD3/BCMA dual antibody Elranatamab is expected to be approved in 2023, and Pfizer expects peak sales to exceed $4 billion upon approval of each indication. For breast cancer indications, Pfizer also has several CDK (cell cycle protein-dependent kinase) inhibitors in the pipeline.