The second round of infection peak March-May arrival? Two groups of people may be greatly affected!

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Just this past Spring, the epidemic did not rebound significantly. With the emergence of Omicron mutant strains CH.1.1, XBB.1.5, BQ.1.1, BQ.1 and XBB, people are very concerned about the possible second wave of infection. Recently, the topic of “the second wave of infection may peak in March to May” has also been on the hot search.

Why is the second wave of infection predicted to peak in March to May?

In an interview with Changjiang Daily on January 31, Xing Mingyou, chief physician of the Department of Infection at Tongji Hospital affiliated with Tongji Medical College of Huazhong University of Science and Technology, analyzed that from a virological and epidemiological point of view, the antibody level in the body will maintain a relatively high peak for 3 to 6 months after “Yang Kang”, and there is only a 2% probability of reinfection within a short period of time. However, the population base of our country is very large, from December last year, after 3 to 6 months, our antibody level will slowly decline, at this time, if there is a new strain of virus mutation, we have a high possibility of clinical symptoms after re-infection, and there is still a possibility of peak.

Prof. Xing Mingyou predicts that the second round of infection will probably peak in March-May, but this time the peak may not be as obvious to the public. Because of the difference in the timing of our infections and the presence of a basal antibody level after our second infection, the number of people infected in the second round, the severity of the symptoms of infection, and the magnitude of the temporal concentration will be much weaker than in the first round. ①

Lu Mengji, a German-Chinese virologist and professor at the Institute of Virus Research at the University of Essen Medical School, also said in an interview with China Newsweek on February 1 that the risk of infection in the population is expected to increase from late March this year as the immunity of the population declines, and that the change in the epidemic will be very obvious in May and June, when it may face a second wave of impact. But whether the second wave of the epidemic will appear in March or May or June depends on whether a new strain with a very high impact will appear. ②

Two groups of people may be greatly affected in the future

Elderly people who are still recovering

In an interview with China Newsweek, Professor Lu Mengji, a virologist and professor at the Institute of Virus Research at the University of Essen Medical School in Germany, talked about how many elderly people who have been infected are now recovering, and that many people with poor health could be very seriously affected by another infection. At this stage, some of the high-risk people with immunodeficiency who did not have the infection may also face the next wave of the outbreak. ②

People who have not yet been infected

The population most affected by the current outbreak is the not-yet-infected population, estimated at 15% to 20%. This is a reduced level of impact compared to the previous situation where the entire population was susceptible, but the size of the population involved is still large given our population base. ③

What can we do? Do 2 things well

Each person is the first person responsible for his or her own health, keeping social distance and practicing good hygiene habits can still prevent infection and secondary infection to a large extent.

keep the habit of wearing a mask

Professor Xing Mingyou, chief physician of the Department of Infection of Tongji Hospital affiliated with Tongji Medical College of Huazhong University of Science and Technology, reminded in an interview with Yangtze River Daily, especially in the more crowded public places, must be regulated to wear masks. The general public routinely travel standardized wearing medical surgical masks is sufficient. Engaged in some high-risk positions and environments, the probability of infection increases the need to wear N95 masks. ①

Three groups of people have priority for vaccination

Professor Xing Mingyou said in an interview with Yangtze Health Media that 6 months after “Yang Kang”, the antibodies produced after our first infection have disappeared, so it is necessary to get a booster vaccination at this time. The vaccination can postpone the time of infection, or reduce the probability of infection.

Three groups of people are recommended to be vaccinated first: first, those who work in high-risk positions such as doctors and couriers; second, elderly patients with underlying diseases such as diabetes, hypertension, tumors or those who have had a transplant on dialysis; third, those who had pneumonia during the first infection and were hospitalized with heavy symptoms, should be vaccinated after the first “Yang Kang 6 months after the first “Yang Kang” must be vaccinated with a booster vaccine. ①

This article was synthesized from.

① 2023-02-01 37 degrees in 丨Changjiang health fusion media “Tongji experts predict: the second round of infection peak may be in March-May

② 2023-02-01 China News Weekly “The current round of epidemic is nearing its end, experts: should prepare early for the second wave of epidemic impact”.

③ 2023-01-30 China News Network “The new coronavirus can’t be spread? Not yet infected people are most affected by the epidemic