What will be the end of the global new crown epidemic? Analysis: Three possible endings

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It has been nearly 3 years since the new crown ravaged the world. Thinking back to the year when Wuhan was closed to the public, Dr. Li Wenliang took the lead in sounding the alarm of the new crown epidemic, academician Zhong Nanshan and medical personnel from all over the country rushed to Wuhan, and the China Construction Group was ordered to build the Vulcan Mountain in 10 days and the Thunder God Mountain in 12 days, and other achievements shocked China and abroad, which are still impassioned when remembered today.

The highly contagious nature of New Crown Pneumonia made people feel nervous, and the extension of the epidemic tomb and various unprecedented initiatives such as the closure of the city brought greater emotional turmoil to the people and their lives were greatly disturbed.

What was the process of the epidemic from the beginning to the outbreak?
At the end of December 2019, cases of pneumonia of unknown origin were detected by the Wuhan CDC surveillance.

Since January 3, 2020, China has regularly and proactively communicated information on the outbreak with the World Health Organization, relevant national and regional organizations, and China, Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan, and has begun to regularly inform the U.S. of outbreak information and prevention and control initiatives.

On January 9, the expert evaluation team of the National Health Commission released information on the etiology of Wuhan unexplained viral pneumonia to the public, and the pathogen was initially judged to be a novel coronavirus.

In the early morning of January 23, Wuhan City Epidemic Prevention and Control Command issued Notice No. 1: Since 10 a.m. that day, the city’s city buses, subways, ferries and long-distance passenger transport suspended operations; airports and train stations were temporarily closed off from the Han channel.

According to the data released by the Wuhan Bureau of China Railway, nearly 300,000 people left the city by rail the day before Wuhan was “closed”.

These 300,000 people headed across the country, and the outbreak in China began.

Typical symptoms of Newcastle Pneumonia
[Typical symptoms].

The new coronavirus pneumonia outbreak has an incubation period of 1 to 14 days, during which there may be no symptoms. After the incubation period, more typical symptoms such as fever, dry cough and malaise appear, and a few patients have symptoms such as nasal congestion, runny nose and sore throat.

Some patients have mild symptoms at the onset of the disease, with only a low fever and mild malaise. In severe cases, progressive dyspnea and even symptoms of acute respiratory distress syndrome may appear after a week.

[Atypical symptoms]

A small percentage of people with New Coronary Pneumonia present with atypical symptoms, commonly digestive symptoms such as diarrhea, abdominal pain, nausea and vomiting, and some people present with neurological symptoms, usually headache as the main cause.

So, when and in what way will New Coronary Pneumonia end? It is still unknown, but there are three general guesses.

In what way will the global New Crown outbreak finally end? Analysis: There are three possible endings!
One, eradicated by the vaccine

This is the most desirable outcome. Similar to the human eradication of smallpox, the new crown virus is completely eradicated through comprehensive vaccination and effective vaccination. The main obstacle at the moment is that this virus is an RNA virus that mutates too quickly. At least for the time being, the development of a “broad-spectrum, effective vaccine to prevent infection” seems to be out of reach.

Human technology is advancing rapidly, and a vaccine may emerge in 5-10 years, or on a scale of 10-20 years. But it is also possible that it will never be developed. Similar is the same RNA virus of AIDS, humans have so far been unable to develop the ideal AIDS virus.

Second, the future of the new crown epidemic become endemic diseases

Michael Ryan, head of WHO’s health emergency program, said the main goal of the new crown vaccine is to avoid seriously ill patients and deaths in order to protect frontline health workers and vulnerable groups to reduce the impact of new crown pneumonia.

It is expected to control New Coronavirus, but higher efficacy vaccination programs and control measures are needed if New Coronavirus is to be eradicated, and in the future New Coronavirus may become an endemic virus.

Third, humans and viruses co-exist for a long time and adapt to each other

Academician Wang Chen: Unlike SARS with neo-crown pneumonia, SARS is highly infectious and pathogenic, with rapid host death and the virus itself not easily surviving.

From a pessimistic point of view, the new coronavirus will not disappear anymore, it will co-exist with humans for a long time. Only after the epidemic reaches a certain level, the virus may mutate, and perhaps the infectiousness and lethality will decrease.

Will China be endlessly vaccinated against the epidemic?
As we look at the treatment and prevention and control of New Coronary Pneumonia, with the increasing rate of vaccination, although it is not possible to keep us completely free of the infection, the disease is generally mild in people who get the vaccine and then develop the disease after contracting the virus, which shows that the antibodies produced by the vaccine are of great use.

And the country has been increasing the research and development of the new crown of special drugs, and has achieved the corresponding results, I believe that in the near future, will certainly be marketed and promoted.

So we definitely will not endlessly prevent the epidemic, as the power of the epidemic gradually weakened, our anti-epidemic means gradually upgraded, the future of the new crown pneumonia, it is likely to be like the common cold, completely able to take some medicine on their own cured.

But it is not yet at this level, so we still have to strictly comply with the national epidemic prevention policy and not to add to the chaos of the country and society.