Why is the current round of the epidemic in Tianjin dragging its tail long and always rebounding?

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The current round of the new crown pneumonia outbreak in Tianjin has been going on for more than a month since the end of August. Unlike the previous experience of Tianjin’s many encounters with the virus “to fast”, for more than a month now, many districts and streets in Tianjin have been repeatedly under closed control or static management, but still new infections continue to appear, and even some areas have rebounded, causing concern.

At a press conference held on the evening of September 27, Gu Qing, deputy secretary general of the Tianjin Municipal Government and director of the Municipal Health and Wellness Commission, said that the current round of the epidemic has been trailing for a long time and there are breakpoints in the individual transmission chain, and there is still a risk of rebound. Zhang Ying, deputy director of the Tianjin CDC, analyzed that the virus spreading in this round is the evolutionary branch of Omicron BA.5.2.1, which is insidious and spreads fast, posing a great challenge to prevention and control, and there is also the problem of inappropriate prevention and control work.

Omicron BA.5.2.1 spreads fast and infected people have obvious symptoms

On the morning of September 28, Tianjin reported 55 new cases of indigenous new coronavirus nucleic acid test-positive infections on the 27th, including 8 confirmed cases (all light) and 47 asymptomatic infections. 1 case was a non-controlled person.

The most intuitive manifestation of this round of the epidemic is the “aggressive”, said Zhang Ying, deputy director of the Tianjin CDC, adding that the number of new positive infections in the first three days of each recent wave of new outbreaks is large, “the most day, the daily increase in the number of patients with positive initial screening is more than 70 cases.” Zhang Ying analyzed that this is because the epidemic has experienced a long period of time from emergence to exposure, often found when it has spread for about seven days and passed through several generations.

Compared with the past, the spread of the virus is characterized by a wide range of points. In the past month or so, 14 of the 16 districts in Tianjin have been affected by the outbreak. Up to now, the positive infections that have emerged are distributed in 88 streets, and the number of risk sites in the city has reached more than 1500.

In terms of the infected patients, the clinical manifestations are more pronounced than in previous outbreaks. According to statistics, 56% of infected people have had upper respiratory and intestinal manifestations, and it is for this reason that a number of infected people have been detected during active medical visits or visits to pharmacies to buy medication.

The virus is also spreading much more rapidly than before. “The average interval of transmission from one positive patient to the next is 2 days, and the average incubation period has been shortened to 1 to 2 days.” This rate is many times faster than previous mutated strains, Zhang Ying said.

The starting point of the current outbreak was a “soccer date” on the night of Aug. 27. In two hours, 41 people played soccer on the same field, 68 percent of whom were infected, and there was a clear clustering of transmission. Statistics confirm the above statement: there are currently 120 families in Tianjin with more than 2 infected cases, and some family members are all infected; 79 infected cases in a large community with a high density of people; and 29 infected cases in a restaurant. And the cumulative report of 252 cases of infected people in the Meijiang Lighting and Home Plaza, 39 staff members were infected.

Where did the virus come from?

Where exactly did the virus come from? Zhang Ying introduced the progress of the current flow of investigation and tracing. She divided the current round of the outbreak into three waves. The first wave of the outbreak originated on August 27, from a soccer field. The genetic sequencing of the first infected person showed that the virus was imported from outside the neighboring countries.

The second wave started on September 14 with a cluster of outbreaks in a lighting city in Xiqing District, Tianjin. A staff member of the lighting city was identified during an unsolicited medical visit to a large residential community in another district where his company was headquartered. Subsequently, positive infections were found in more than 30 buildings in that residential community. Upon flow investigation, it was found that a batch of goods in the warehouse of the aforementioned lighting city was sent from a foreign city on September 8, and the CDC staff found that its inner packaging was positive. At the same time, genetic sequencing of the subsequent infected people revealed that the virus mutation sites were different from the previous soccer stadium outbreak, Zhang Ying said, inferring that the first two waves of the outbreak were from two different transmission chains.

The most recent wave of the outbreak was an aggregated outbreak that appeared in a Binhai New Area business on Sept. 26. The first reported case was detected in a standing nucleic acid screening, and 43 cases of new coronavirus infection were subsequently detected in the screening of their close contacts, 28 of which were employees of the same enterprise. “The outbreak has now spread from the enterprise to the community, and the number of risk sites continues to increase.” Zhang Ying said. After samples of imported materials were collected from the enterprise engaged in production, the flow investigators found in a batch of goods that were negative for the outer and inner packaging, but positive for the components inside. The relevant investigation is still ongoing.

Face up to the problem and dare to expose the shortcomings

55 new cases a day, the number makes many Tianjin citizens feel helpless. For more than a month, the people of Tianjin experienced the cycle of “nucleic acid in the morning, checking the results at noon, and seeing if it was sealed and controlled or under static management in the afternoon”. Many districts and streets throughout the city have been sealed repeatedly, and many areas are still under static management, with some neighborhoods still under control. And why is the number of new cases rebounding again?

Gu Qing said that at this stage, the risk of community transmission in Tianjin is mainly concentrated in some urban areas and the core urban area of Binhai New Area, and there is still a risk of rebound and spillover of the epidemic. He talked about the many reasons that caused the epidemic to drag on, and in particular, took the initiative to reflect on the problems that existed in the prevention and control of the epidemic.

“Some leading cadres, public officials, have loopholes and shortcomings in the implementation of various prevention and control measures, and the implementation of epidemic prevention instructions is not in place.” Gu Qing used the metaphor of “a hole as big as a needle tip can penetrate a big wind”, saying that if these loopholes and gaps are not handled properly, they will lead to new problems and new risks, and it will be impossible to completely eliminate the hidden spread of the virus.

He also said that in the process of dealing with the new Omicron mutant strain of the epidemic, there is still a lack of experience in understanding the special characteristics of the virus, such as the strong insidiousness and speed of transmission, “and sometimes fall behind the spread of the virus.”

“The current round of the epidemic has indeed lasted too long.” Zhang Ying did not evade the question, directly throwing out the doubts in the minds of many citizens – why does the epidemic persist? Why can’t it be controlled? Why are there still positive nucleic acid tests being done constantly? Why is there still a social side after sealing so many neighborhoods and silencing so many streets?

In addition to the above-mentioned peculiarities of virus transmission, Zhang Ying took the initiative to reflect on the human factors behind the persistence of the outbreak. She talked about the fact that there are indeed some individual phenomena such as evading nucleic acid screening and not cooperating with epidemic prevention, “but we have to reflect on why they are not cooperating with epidemic prevention. In fact, it’s due to the fact that some of our vaccination work is not done properly. Why can’t positive infections be found when nucleic acid testing is carried out continuously? It is simply not collected in place, causing the subsequent development of the epidemic.”

Why would a positive infected person run out of the control area? Zhang Ying analysis, “because he is afraid, afraid that there will be special circumstances no one to manage him, afraid that the supplies are not in place, he has no bottom in his heart. This is also the public’s distrust of our work.” She believes that the epidemic prevention and control staff should reflect on these issues and get the job done in order to quickly control the epidemic.

Gu Qing also said that in the past period of time, Tianjin in some areas to implement the “quiet down, slow down, block up, apart” and other measures to control the flow of people, “these measures do bring a lot of inconvenience to the work and life of the majority of the folks in Tianjin, the masses on the protection of services proposed by the needs and reflections are very normal. We will also continue to improve. We implore everyone to understand and appreciate.”